Small School Round-Up: State Meet Preview
~~A~~
Boys
1. Mooreland
2. Sweetwater
3. Laverne
5. Academy of Classical Christian Studies
The Spin: I promise I'm not trying to be bias to my alma mater. Sweetwater and Mooreland had the same regional average with near identical 4th runners but Mooreland has the head to head advantage through the season. I also believe the rest of your top 5 is dangerous. This is still a class without a true favorite and I think the top 5 is very interchangeable. I don't foresee any other team cracking this top 5.
Individual
The Spin: Bly Frieouf has proven time and time again he is the top of class A boys and I don't see that changing. I am fairly confident in my 2 and 3 unless Hensley can be close to Motley with 400m to go. Hensley has the best 800m speed so I'd take him in a footrace over Motley. I put Odom and Mcdevitt as 4 and 5 but honestly their are many guys you could argue for these spots.
Girls
2. Texhoma
3. Velma Alma
4. Thomas-Fay-Custar
5. Laverne
The Spin: Southwest Covenant is on a different level than the rest of the division. It will take a herculean effort to beat them but with a chance of rain over the weekend may result in a damp course which adds a wrinkle into the race. Maybe another team thrives in poor conditions while SW Covenant suffers. I don't see that as likely but if their is a great flooding of the course this weekend, whichever team builds the best arc will be victorious.
Individual
1. Allie Sheppard (Southwest Covenant)
3. Abby Gourd (Porter-Consolidated)
4. Kennedy Robertson (Southwest Covenant)
The Spin: I believe my top 3 is rock solid and will be the top 3 on the day. However I'm not entirely sure about what order to put them in. You could put them in any order and I would not argue against it. I like Allie Sheppards consistency but the others aren't that far behind in consistency. As for 4 and 5 they are most likely for those positions but both are freshman which can be more volatile at the state meet.
~~2A~~
Boys
2. Hooker
4. Warner
5. Wyandotte
The Spin: Its either Hooker or Regent. I don't want to say no one else has a shot but a lot would need to happen for anyone else to be in contention for the team title. Both have an argument as to why they are number 1 but I must give the edge to Regent Yes they have a fairly young squad but sometimes freshman naivety is a benefit at the state meet. With the season they've had up to this point they have earned the right to come in full of confidence. On paper everything points to Regent as champs but something in me wants to pick Hooker. They have an incredible program which always seems to be there when it matters. For example state track last spring, I did not pick them to win after their regional performance but they managed to put together a dominant run for the title when it mattered winning the title. A lot of those athletes are on this state xc team. However this is no 4x8... give me Regent Prep by a single digit margin.
Individual
1. Clay McKinney (Regent Preparatory)
4. Thomas Odea (Regent Preparatory)
The Spin: Clay has the fastest PR by 30 plus seconds, he can win this race in almost any way he chooses if he's on his game. If he has even a B plus day he'll have his hands full with Cowan. The rest of my top 5 will be a mix of Hooker and Regent athletes trying to sort the team honors. If Hooker wants a chance, Perez ahead of Odea would be a good start.
Girls
1. Hooker
4. Watonga
5. Hennessey
The Spin: Calliy Walker had a statement win over Neville at the regional meet and has earned the title of favorite in my opinion. Although Walker looks to be the favorite its not by much, both Odea and Neville could be strongly argued for because of their entire careers worth of work. Walker may be the breakout star of the season but the veterans won't let her win easy.
5. Dickson
The Spin: Casady is the defending champs and will look to defend the belt. I believe they have the best team but not by much over OCS. OCS is interesting to me because they flew under the radar a majority of the season but have been coming on strong over the past month. Chisholm looks back to their early season form with Karsen Hennigh returning to the line up. I think its Casadys race to lose but it will be close.
Individual
1. Levi Haynes (Community Christian)
3. Logan Austin (Oklahoma Christian)
5. Samuel Cox (Rejoice Christian)
The Spin: All season I had Levi Haynes as my favorite as he looked virtually untouchable against all of the best 3A runners. However, he suffered a defeat to Landon Eubank at the regional meet. In my mind this means one of two things. First, Eubank is that dude and this is his time to become the 3A king. Second, Haynes saw the pace of Eubank and let off a bit with the mentality of saving it for state. I believe the first but something tells me Haynes may still pull it off.
Girls
1. Prague
2. Cascia Hall
3. Bethel
4. Chisholm
The Spin: I honestly don't know who to pick. It will be close. It will be high scoring and there is 5-7 teams who may win. Good Luck.
Individual
The Spin: Much like the team race I believe any number of athletes could win this. The top 3a girl title has traded hands many times all year but Scheffe's performance at regionals with a big win over top girls puts her in the drivers seat for the weekend. Many of the other top girls in the class are freshman or sophomores who may not handle the adversity of a state meet like a seasoned vet the way Scheffe will.
~~4A~~
Boys
2. Byng
3. Cache
4. Bridge Creek
The Spin: I was super close to giving the edge to Byng and I still would put the odds nearly identical with Lincoln. Lincoln has looked great most of the year and has a history of pulling off victories at the state meet. Now where I think Byng could beat them is that their top 5 run a tight pack race and find themselves near the front. If even one of Lincolns athletes has a B plus day and finishes 20 plus seconds behind the Byng pack. Byng will be your champions. If Lincoln has a Lincoln day and their 4-5 is near the Byng pack. Lincoln will be your champions.
Individual
3. Ty Brooks (Lincoln Christian)
The Spin: As much as I try and be a Zachary Williams hater, he will win. Now 2-5 is a different story. I give Custar the second place nod, he always shows up at big meets and despite not running as fast of times as the rest of the pack he does what it takes to win. He is the 4A Mez Barth, does enough to win no matter who he's against. Next I put Ty Brooks, maybe the most talented guy of the chase pack but he has been a bit more hit and miss this season so I don't fully trust I am getting an A+ Ty Brooks race. If it is an A+ Ty Brooks race, maybe he's second. Jones is next on my list, he has fast times and I think he'll play clean-up if anyone chases hard after Zach.
Girls
1. Pauls Valley
3. Byng
4. Plainview
The Spin: Unlike the men's race which very easily could be a blow out I don't foresee this race playing out that way. Pauls Valley and Lincoln are both super good with individuals who can win and 4-5s not far behind. Pauls Valley finally sorted their 5 spot out which all season I identified as their Achilles heel. Lincoln has looked strong all season no matter who they are up against. It will be close every spot will matter.
Individual
1. Kenzi Readnour (Pauls Valley)
2. Baylee Woodrich (Lincoln Christian)
3. Tennyson Housley (Lincoln Christian)
6. Kenzi Readnour (Pauls Valley)
7. Isabella Gutierrez (Pauls Valley)
8. Ryleigh Hodges (Metro Christian)
The Spin: This will be close... VERY VERY CLOSE. I couldn't settle on 5 so here is a top 10. I think any of the top 3-5 could be the champion but I ordered them most to least likely in my opinion. From there I think there will be strong pack close behind battling for positions. Very rarely do I think the individual race will have a big impact on the team but with the team race as close as it is it will be huge on Saturday.